Mixed Signals Across Market Indicators and Transaction Dynamics: Monomoy’s 1H 2025 Deal Flow Report

Monomoy’s proprietary deal tracking reveals the effects of persistent middle-market headwinds during the first half of 2025, as transaction failure rates climbed to historic highs. Against this backdrop, our latest strategic report offers a data-driven analysis of deal activity, revealing an 8% year-over-year decline in volume. However, a 5% increase — compared to the second half of 2024 — suggests that while macro uncertainty and shifting trade policy continued to weigh on process formation, the market is not at a standstill.

Drawing from our proprietary deal tracking data and ongoing market conversations, Monomoy’s Business Development Team has assembled a detailed analysis of the factors driving transaction outcomes in this complex environment, while providing a strategic outlook for the remainder of the year.

Key highlights of this report include:

• As of LTM April 2025, 66% of the deals Monomoy submitted an IOI on have yet to trade, representing the highest level of ‘no-trades’ observed over both one- and three-year periods and well above the three-year historical average of 49%.
• Among sub-$25M EBITDA deals, the share that failed to transact jumped from 59% to 92% year-over-year.
• Building Products (72% no-trade) and Consumer Products (67% no-trade) were the sectors most affected by transaction failures year-over-year.
• Infrastructure, Power & Utilities sectors demonstrated resilience with only a 33% no-trade rate.
• Monomoy’s Deal Compass (our forward-looking pipeline of opportunities expected to come to market) returned to normalized levels at ~200 deals, matching 1H 2024 and indicating sustained opportunities ahead.
• In January, Monomoy completed a successful exit of its Astro Shapes platform.