Mixed Signals Across Market Indicators and Transaction Dynamics: Monomoy’s 1H 2025 Deal Flow Report
July 30, 2025
Mixed Signals Across Market Indicators and Transaction Dynamics: Monomoy’s 1H 2025 Deal Flow Report
Monomoy’s proprietary deal tracking reveals the effects of persistent middle-market headwinds during the first half of 2025, as transaction failure rates climbed to historic highs. Against this backdrop, our latest strategic report offers a data-driven analysis of deal activity, revealing an 8% year-over-year decline in volume. However, a 5% increase — compared to the second half of 2024 — suggests that while macro uncertainty and shifting trade policy continued to weigh on process formation, the market is not at a standstill.
Drawing from our proprietary deal tracking data and ongoing market conversations, Monomoy’s Business Development Team has assembled a detailed analysis of the factors driving transaction outcomes in this complex environment, while providing a strategic outlook for the remainder of the year.
Key highlights of this report include:
- As of LTM April 2025, 66% of the deals Monomoy submitted an IOI on have yet to trade, representing the highest level of ‘no-trades’ observed over both one- and three-year periods and well above the three-year historical average of 49%.
- Among sub-$25M EBITDA deals, the share that failed to transact jumped from 59% to 92% year-over-year.
- Building Products (72% no-trade) and Consumer Products (67% no-trade) were the sectors most affected by transaction failures year-over-year.
- Infrastructure, Power & Utilities sectors demonstrated resilience with only a 33% no-trade rate.
- Monomoy’s Deal Compass (our forward-looking pipeline of opportunities expected to come to market) returned to normalized levels at ~200 deals, matching 1H 2024 and indicating sustained opportunities ahead.
- In January, Monomoy completed a successful exit of its Astro Shapes platform.
To further discuss our 1H Deal Flow report, Monomoy’s investment strategy or potential acquisition opportunities, please contact a member of our Business Development Team:
Renn Iaboni
Managing Director
riaboni@mcpfunds.com
John Miller
Vice President
jmiller@mcpfunds.com
Mary Winston Richardson
Vice President
mrichardson@mcpfunds.com
Will Prout
Associate
wprout@mcpfunds.com
This presentation is for informational purposes only and should not be treated as research or investment advice. Certain information contained herein has been obtained from published and non-published sources and has not been independently verified by Monomoy or its affiliates. The information contained herein is subject to revision and does not purport to be complete. This document speaks as of the date hereof or as of the specific date(s) noted herein, as applicable, and Monomoy undertakes no obligation to update any of the information contained herein. Statements contained in this presentation are based on current expectations, estimates, projections, opinions and beliefs of the investment team of Monomoy as of the date hereof unless stated otherwise. Such statements involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties, and undue reliance should not be placed thereon. Neither Monomoy nor any of its affiliates make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein and nothing contained herein should be relied upon as a promise or representation as to past or future performance. Certain information contained in this document constitutes “forward-looking statements,” which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “may”, “will”, “should”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “target”, “project”, “estimate”, “intend”, “continue” or “believe” or the negatives thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events or results or the actual results may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking events discussed in this presentation may not occur.